It is recognized that social heterogeneities in terms of the contact distribution have a strong influence on the spread of infectious diseases. Nevertheless, few data are available and their statistical description does not possess universal patterns and may vary spatially and temporally. It is therefore essential to design optimal control strategies, mimicking the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions, to limit efficiently the number of infected cases.
In this work, starting from a recently introduced kinetic model for epidemiological dynamics that takes into account the impact of social contacts of individuals, we consider an uncertain contact formation dynamics leading to slim-tailed as well as fat-tailed distributions of contacts. Hence, we analyse the effects of an optimal control strategy of the system of agents. Thanks to classical methods of kinetic theory, we couple uncertainty quantification methods with the introduced mathematical model to assess the effects of social limitations. Finally, using the proposed modelling approach and starting from available data, we show the effectiveness of the proposed selective measures to dampen uncertainties together with the epidemic trends.
The study of uncertainty propagation is of fundamental importance in plasma physics simulations. To this end, in the present work we propose a novel stochastic Galerkin (sG) particle methods for collisional kinetic models of plasmas under the effect of uncertainties.
This class of methods is based on a generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion of the particles’ position and velocity. In details, we introduce a stochastic particle approximation for the Vlasov-Poisson system with a BGK term describing plasma collisions. A careful reformulation of such dynamics is needed to perform the sG projection and to obtain the corresponding system for the gPC coefficients. We show that the sG particle method preserves the main physical properties of the problem, such as conservations and positivity of the solution, while achieving spectral accuracy for smooth solutions in the random space. Furthermore, in the fluid limit the sG particle solver is designed to possess the asymptotic-preserving property necessary to obtain a sG particle scheme for the limiting Euler-Poisson system, thus avoiding the loss of hyperbolicity typical of conventional sG methods based on finite differences or finite volumes. We tested the schemes considering the classical Landau damping problem in the presence of both small and large initial uncertain perturbations, the two stream instability and the Sod shock tube problems under uncertainties. The results show that the proposed method is able to capture the correct behavior of the system in all test cases, even when the relaxation time scale is very small.
Multiscale Modeling & Simulation, in press. (Preprint arXiv)
Nonlinear Fokker-Planck equations play a major role in modeling large systems of interacting particles with a proved effectiveness in describing real world phenomena ranging from classical fields such as fluids and plasma to social and biological dynamics.
Their mathematical formulation has often to face with physical forces having a significant random component or with particles living in a random environment which characterization may be deduced through experimental data and leading consequently to uncertainty-dependent equilibrium states. In this work, to address the problem of effectively solving stochastic Fokker-Planck systems, we will construct a new equilibrium preserving scheme through a micro-macro approach based on stochastic Galerkin methods. The resulting numerical method, contrarily to the direct application of a stochastic Galerkin projection in the parameter space of the unknowns of the underlying Fokker-Planck model, leads to highly accurate description of the uncertainty dependent large time behavior. Several numerical tests in the context of collective behavior for social and life sciences are presented to assess the validity of the present methodology against standard ones.
In this paper we study a novel Fokker-Planck-type model that is designed to mimic manufacturing processes through the dynamics characterizing a large set of agents. In particular, we describe a many-agent system interacting with a target domain in such a way that each agent/particle is attracted by the center of mass of the target domain with the aim to uniformly cover this zone.
To this end, we first introduce a mean-field model with discontinuous flux whose large time behavior is such that the steady state is globally continuous and uniform over a connected portion of the domain. We prove that a diffusion coefficient that guarantees that a given portion of mass enters in the target domain exists and that it is unique. Furthermore, convergence to equilibrium in 1D is provided through a reformulation of the initial problem involving a nonconstant diffusion function. The extension to 2D is explored numerically by means of recently introduced structure preserving methods for Fokker-Planck equations.
Fake news spreading, with the aim of manipulating individuals’ perceptions of facts, is now recognized as a major problem in many democratic societies. Yet, to date, little has been understood about how fake news spreads on social networks, what the influence of the education level of individuals is, when fake news is effective in influencing public opinion, and what interventions might be successful in mitigating their effect.
In this paper, starting from the recently introduced kinetic multi-agent model with competence by the first two authors, we propose to derive reduced- order models through the notion of social closure in the mean-field approximation that has its roots in the classical hydrodynamic closure of kinetic theory. This approach allows to obtain simplified models in which the competence and learning of the agents maintain their role in the dynamics and, at the same time, the structure of such models is more suitable to be interfaced with data-driven applications. Examples of different Twitter-based test cases are described and discussed.
In this paper, we focus on the construction of a hybrid scheme for the approximation of non- Maxwellian kinetic models with uncertainties. In the context of multiagent systems, the introduction of a kernel at the kinetic level is useful to avoid unphysical interactions.
The methods here proposed, combine a direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) in the phase space together with stochastic Galerkin (sG) methods in the random space. The developed schemes preserve the main physical properties of the solution together with accuracy in the random space. The consistency of the methods is tested with respect to surrogate Fokker-Planck models that can be obtained in the quasi-invariant regime of parameters. Several applications of the schemes to non-Maxwellian models of multiagent systems are reported.
The spreading of Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the close link between economics and health in the context of emergency management. A widespread vaccination campaign is considered the main tool to contain the economic consequences. This paper will focus, at the level of wealth distribution modelling, on the economic improvements induced by the vaccination campaign in terms of its effectiveness rate. The economic trend during the pandemic is evaluated resorting to a mathematical model joining a classical compartmental model including vaccinated individuals with a kinetic model of wealth distribution based on binary wealth exchanges. The interplay between wealth exchanges and the progress of the infectious disease is realized by assuming on the one hand that individuals in different compartments act differently in the economic process and on the other hand that the epidemic affects risk in economic transactions. Using the mathematical tools of kinetic theory, it is possible to identify the equilibrium states of the system and the formation of inequalities due to the pandemic in the wealth distribution of the population. Numerical experiments highlight the importance of the vaccination campaign and its positive effects in reducing economic inequalities in the multi-agent society
We study the impact of contact heterogeneity on epidemic dynamics. A system characterized by multiple susceptible populations is considered. The description of the spread of an infectious disease is obtained through the study of a system of Boltzmann-type equations for the number densities of social contacts of the introduced compartments. A macroscopic system of equations characterizing observable effects of the epidemic is then derived to assess the impact of contact heterogeneity.
In this work, we develop a kinetic model for tumour growth taking into account the effects of clinical uncertainties characterising the tumours’ progression.
The action of therapeutic protocols trying to steer the tumours’ volume towards a target size is then investigated by means of suitable selective-type controls acting at the level of cellular dynamics. By means of classical tools of statistical mechanics for many-agent systems, we are able to prove that it is possible to dampen clinical uncertainties across the scales. To take into account the scarcity of clinical data and the possible source of error in the image segmentation of tumours’ evolution, we estimated empirical distributions of relevant parameters that are considered to calibrate the resulting model obtained from real cases of primary glioblastoma. Suitable numerical methods for uncertainty quantification of the resulting kinetic equations are discussed and, in the last part of the paper, we compare the effectiveness of the introduced control approaches in reducing the variability in tumours’ size due to the presence of uncertain quantities.
We introduce and discuss a system of one-dimensional kinetic equations describing the influence of higher education in the social stratification of a multi-agent society.
The system is obtained by coupling a model for knowledge formation with a kinetic description of the social climbing in which the parameters characterizing the elementary interactions leading to the formation of a social elite are assumed to depend on the degree of knowledge/education of the agents. In addition, we discuss the case in which the education level of an individual is function of the position occupied in the social ranking. With this last assumption we obtain a fully coupled model in which knowledge and social status influence each other. In the last part, we provide several numerical experiments highlighting the role of education in reducing social inequalities and in promoting social mobility.